Sustainable Copper; markets and drivers

Copper, a highly conductive, malleable, and corrosion-resistant metal, is essential for numerous industrial and technological applications. Over the last few decades, global copper consumption has been on a steady rise. According to the International Copper Study Group (ICSG), world refined copper usage increased from approximately 21.1 million metric tons (Mt) in 2010 to around 24.4 Mt in 2020 and is projected to continue growing at an estimated annual rate of 1.5–2.0% through the mid-2020s (ICSG, 2021). This sustained demand is driven by structural shifts in global infrastructure development, green energy transitions, and expanding markets for advanced electronics and electric vehicles. Understanding these essential growth drivers can help stakeholders navigate future supply dynamics, technological transitions, and sustainability challenges.

As outlined below in more detail, the essential drivers behind the global growth in the copper market are multifaceted and intertwined. Infrastructure development, especially in rapidly emerging economies, ensures steady baseline demand. The global pursuit of decarbonization and the resulting surge in renewable energy projects significantly intensify copper’s role in the green energy transition. Meanwhile, the electrification of the transportation sector and the digitalization of modern life sustain a robust growth trajectory for copper consumption. These collective factors, supported by credible data and expert analyses, underscore copper’s continued prominence as a strategic metal in the 21st-century global economy.

A key driver in global copper demand stems from ongoing infrastructure expansion—particularly in emerging economies in Asia, Africa, and Latin America. For instance, China alone accounts for more than 50% of global refined copper consumption due to its large-scale construction projects, power grid expansions, and urbanization initiatives (World Bank, 2020). India’s push for enhanced electrification and new high-speed rail networks also fuels copper’s upward consumption trend. Copper’s intrinsic properties—high electrical conductivity (approximately 5.96×10^7 S/m) and excellent thermal conductivity (~400 W/m·K)—make it indispensable for wiring, power generation, and structural components in modern infrastructure.

As countries invest heavily in reliable electrical grids, telecommunication networks, and renewable power installations, their demand for copper wiring, transformers, connectors, and conductors intensifies. For example, the continued roll-out of rural electrification programs in sub-Saharan Africa and massive inter-city power transmission projects in China and India significantly boost copper use. This infrastructure-driven growth is further augmented by global stimulus measures aimed at post-pandemic economic recovery, which often prioritize large-scale construction and modernization projects.

The accelerating shift towards renewable energy sources—solar photovoltaics, wind turbines, and hydroelectric systems—is another central driver of copper demand. Copper’s superior conductivity and corrosion resistance make it a crucial component of renewable energy infrastructure. Solar photovoltaic systems and wind turbines require copper in their wiring, inverters, transformers, and grounding systems. On average, onshore wind turbines can contain between 2–4 metric tons of copper per megawatt (MW) of installed capacity, while offshore wind turbines may require over 5 metric tons per MW (European Copper Institute, 2020).

Solar power installations similarly depend on copper cabling and transformers for efficient transmission. As nations commit to reducing their greenhouse gas emissions, global solar and wind capacity is projected to grow significantly—from roughly 760 GW of wind and 720 GW of solar PV capacity in 2020 to well over double those values by 2030 (IEA, 2021). This expansion will further bolster copper demand as new grids, storage systems, and maintenance operations come online.

The electrification of the global transportation sector is exerting substantial upward pressure on copper markets. Electric vehicles (EVs) typically require two to four times more copper than internal combustion engine vehicles—approximately 60–83 kg per EV compared to about 23 kg in a conventional car (IEA, 2020; Glöser et al., 2013). This difference arises from the copper-intensive components in EV powertrains, charging infrastructure, and onboard electronics.

As governments implement stricter emissions standards and offer incentives for EV adoption, the electric vehicle fleet is expected to grow exponentially. Projections by the International Energy Agency suggest that the global EV stock could reach 145 million by 2030, up from just 11 million in 2020 (IEA, 2021). This large-scale adoption will drive steady, long-term copper demand growth, not only in vehicle production but also in the required charging stations and upgraded electrical grids.

The rise of advanced electronics and digitalization contributes to copper demand through the proliferation of data centers, communication devices, and Internet-of-Things (IoT) technologies. High-speed data transmission infrastructure—fiber-optic networks, 5G base stations, and servers—requires copper-rich components for connectors, printed circuit boards, and cooling systems. Although fiber optics often replace copper in data transmission, copper remains integral for power supply, grounding, and other critical hardware interfaces.

In addition, consumer electronics such as smartphones, laptops, wearables, and appliances contain significant quantities of copper in their circuitry. Expanding global populations with rising incomes, particularly in Asia, consistently boost sales in these segments. While advances in miniaturization and materials science aim to optimize metal usage, the net effect of increasing device adoption and network expansion remains positive for copper demand.

Copper recycling is an important circular economy approach to meet growing demand for copper while reducing reliance on mining.

Some key points about copper recycling and the metallurgy and economy behind it include:

1. Recycling copper requires significantly less energy than primary production from mining. Recycled copper can reduce energy consumption by 80-90% compared to primary production.

2. The recycling input rate (RIR) for copper, or the proportion of copper produced from recycled sources was very low in the past; it was only around 33% globally in recent years. Given its high value and price, this is a very small ratio.

3. End-of-life recycling rates for copper products vary widely, from 26-82% depending on the product category and region. The global average end-of-life recycling rate is around 40%. Again, given its high value and price, this is a very small ratio.

4. Major sources of recycled copper include electrical wiring, plumbing, electronic products, and vehicles. Improving collection and processing of these waste streams is key to increasing recycling rates.

5. Challenges for copper recycling include:
• Declining ore grades making primary production more energy intensive
• Increasing complexity of products containing copper
• Lack of infrastructure for collection and processing in many regions
• Downgrading of copper quality through recycling of mixed alloys

6. Policy measures like extended producer responsibility and minimum recycled content standards could help drive increased copper recycling.

7. Even with optimistic recycling scenarios, primary copper production will still be needed to meet projected demand growth in coming decades. Recycling alone cannot fully replace mining.

Copper plays a critical role in various aspects of transport electrification, including:

1. Electric Vehicles (EVs): Representing the largest share of copper demand due to its extensive use in motors, wiring, and power systems.
2. Charging Infrastructure: Highlighting the copper required for widespread deployment of EV chargers.
3. Renewable Energy Integration: Supporting the clean energy sources that power EVs, necessitating copper for efficient energy transmission.
4. Grid Expansion: Reflecting copper’s role in reinforcing electrical grids to handle increased electricity demand.
5. Battery Storage: Demonstrating the copper used in energy storage systems to stabilize renewable energy supply.

To be more specific, battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) use significantly more copper than conventional vehicles, containing about 83 kg of copper compared to 23 kg in an internal combustion engine vehicle.

Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs) fall in between, using approximately 60 kg of copper.

In a typical BEV, copper usage is distributed across various components:

   - Wiring harness: 25 kg

   - Electric motor: 22 kg

   - Battery: 20 kg

   - Other components: 16 kg

This increased copper content in electric vehicles highlights the metal's crucial role in the electrification of transport. As the automotive industry shifts towards electrification, the demand for copper is expected to rise significantly, underscoring its importance in the transition to more sustainable transportation systems.